Lesson Plan: Population Policies Around the World

Subjects:

World History/Global Studies, Geography, Civics/Government, Economics, Environmental Science (Interdisciplinary)

• World History/Global Studies, Geography, Civics/Government: This lesson explores the global challenges of the post-WWII era, fitting into units on 20th-century geopolitics, demographic change or the role of government in policy intervention related to resource management.

• Economics: Units focusing on scarcity and incentives, economic growth models, or development economics, using the Simon-Ehrlich wager as a case study on resource forecasting.

• Environmental Science: Historical background for human impact on the environment, applicable within units covering natural resource management, carrying capacity or sustainability strategies.

Grade Level:

6-12

Lesson Duration:

Two 45-60 minute class periods

• Day 1: Steps 1-5; Day 2: Steps 5 (cont.)-8 and Extension

Essential Questions:

• High School Focus (Grades 9-12):

  • How should society evaluate and respond to long-term environmental and social predictions?

  • What is the relationship between scientific theory, public perception and policy outcomes?

  • How can human ingenuity overcome predictions of resource scarcity?

• Middle School Scaffolding (Grades 6-8):

  • When experts predict the future, how should people decide if they should listen?

  • How does what scientists say change what people think and what the government does?

  • Does human effort and technology always solve problems before we run out of resources?

Lesson Objectives:

Students will:

• Explain the concepts of overpopulation and underpopulation, and analyze the effects of population growth.

• Examine and assess the effectiveness of government policies aimed at controlling population growth.

• Analyze global and national demographic data (population pyramids) to identify current trends in over- and underpopulation.

Materials:

• Retro Report video “Population Bomb: The Overpopulation Theory That Fell Flat” (Transcript)

• Student Activity handout

• Map Reveals World’s 10 Fastest Growing Populations | Newsweek (Linked in Activity handout; create PDF copies to print, as needed)

• Map Reveals Countries With Disappearing Populations | Newsweek (Linked in Activity handout; create PDF copies to print, as needed)

• Interactive Map: Population Policies Around the World | Retro Report

• Flag Sets: print and cut out (1 flag set per group – 4 sets provided; multiply according to your class size)

Procedure:

1. Warm-up (10 minutes) – Distribute the Student Activity handout. Have students read the two short articles about current global population challenges. Instruct students to read both articles and identify the main population challenge presented in each (overpopulation and underpopulation). (Note – if desired, this can be completed individually in preparation for the class activity.)

2. Facilitate a brief discussion where students compare the potential long-term problems associated with both rapid growth (e.g., resource strain, infrastructure stress, environmental impact/pollution) and decline (e.g., fewer workers to support the economy, higher taxes or cuts to services for younger workers, difficulty funding pensions and healthcare for the elderly). To establish a comparative framework before watching the video, encourage students to use evidence from the two articles they just read.

   1. Tell students: “You’ve read about two very different population problems: some countries are growing quickly, and some are shrinking. In your groups, you have 3 minutes to quickly brainstorm and list the major challenges facing each type of country. What’s the main worry for a country with rapid population growth? What’s the main worry for a country with population decline?”

   2. Have students work in pairs or small groups to organize their ideas. A T-chart or Venn diagram may be provided as a visual tool for this step.

3. Video Analysis (12 minutes) – Introduce the Retro Report video, explaining that it details a period (late 1960s) when the fear was overwhelmingly focused on rapid, uncontrolled global population growth. Instruct students to answer the following questions as they watch:

   1. What did Paul Ehrlich predict would happen to the world if population growth continued unchecked?

   2. What was the Zero Population Growth movement, and what did it encourage people to do?

   3. What does Stewart Brand mean when he says the “population bomb was defused by urbanization”?

   4. What are some examples of how geography and technology have affected population growth and food supply?

   5. In 1968, when “The Population Bomb” came out, the global fertility rate was about 4.9 children per woman. Today, it’s around 2.4 children per woman. What does this big drop tell us about whether Ehrlich’s predictions were right or wrong?

   6. What is the key message in the video’s closing statement: “The point at which population peaks around 9 billion…the story will be, oh my God! We’re running out of people.”

4. Data Exploration Setup (5 minutes) – Distribute flag sets (four countries per group) and have students form their collaborative working groups based on matching the flags. (Teacher note: Select countries that represent a range of population pyramids—rapid growth, stable, and declining/aging.)

5. Population Pyramid Exploration: Ensure all groups can access the “Population Policies Around The World” interactive tool.

   1. Investigate the Interactive (3 minutes) – Allow students 3 minutes to explore the interactive by clicking the globe icon in the top-right corner. Together, examine the information provided in the “How to Explore This Interactive Map” section. Note the overview, the key terms, the menu with the population pyramids video and the different countries.

   2. Warm-up (10 minutes) – Have students watch the Population Pyramid Overview on the interactive menu, individually or as a class. They should answer the two questions on the Student Activity handout and practice by reading a United States population pyramid and briefly responding to the provided prompts.

   3. Data & Trend Analysis (15-20 minutes) – Have each group examine all four of their assigned countries using the “Population Policies Around The World” interactive tool and record their answers on the Student Activity handout.

      1. What do you observe in the current pyramid (e.g., wide base, narrow top)?

      2. How has the pyramid changed since 1969? What’s predicted by 2050?

      3. Does the country show rapid growth, decline, or a steady pattern?

      4. What kind of population challenge is the country primarily facing (overpopulation/underpopulation)?

      5. What challenges might the country face as a result of its population trends (e.g., funding pensions, youth unemployment)?

6. Policy Investigation (10–12 min) – Using the “Population Policies Around the World” interactive, students should examine their four countries’ population policies and record each country’s key government responses (e.g., pro-natalist policies, retirement incentives, child restrictions, migration programs).

   1. As a group, they should compare the four countries. Are there similarities in the policy responses despite different population trends? Or are the responses tailored specifically to the country’s unique challenge?

7. Whole-Class Debrief (10–15 min) – Bring the class back together for group presentations or a facilitated discussion based on the group work. Discussion prompts may include:

   1. Based on your data and policy analysis, which of your four countries is facing the greatest population-related challenge? Why?

   2. What’s one surprising or creative policy response your group discovered that addresses their country’s demographic trend?

   3. Which strategies (pro-natal, migration, green technology) seem most effective or creative in managing population challenges?

   4. Choose one population policy your group found (for example: encouraging families to have more kids, limiting migration, or controlling population growth). How might a person’s background—like their income, gender, social class, or identity—affect how they experience or feel about this policy?

8. Exit Ticket – After debriefing, have students complete the exit ticket on their Student Activity handout.

   1. Have students choose one of the following statements to defend. Students should be sure to use evidence from the video, graphs and government policies that they have investigated.

   2. Which statement do you agree with more, and why?

      1. “Overpopulation is still the biggest threat facing humanity.”

      2. “The bigger problem today is population decline.”

Extension Activity:

1. Have students examine the Simon-Ehrlich Wager from an economic perspective. Have students consider the following questions:

   1. What are the key principles of economic forecasting?

   2. What are the historic trends for per capita GDP? What other measures can or should we use to measure economic changes?

   3. Potential resources for students, beyond the Retro Report video include:

      1. How Julian Simon Won a $1,000 Bet With “Population Bomb” Author Paul Ehrlich | Foundation for Economic Education

      2. A Bet, Five Metals And the Future of the Planet | Planet Money

2. Show students this 6-minute video from the American Museum of Natural History: Human Population Through Time to introduce the topic of world population. Possible post-viewing tasks/ questions for students could include:

   1. Identify the two points in history where the world population curve makes its most dramatic jump. What major technological or social change drove each of these jumps? Considering the video, why was the rapid population growth witnessed in the 1960s (the subject of the Retro Report video) so alarming to scientists like Paul Ehrlich?

   2. Paul Ehrlich’s communication often relied on alarmist predictions to motivate policy action. In the context of contemporary global challenges such as artificial intelligence, pandemics, or environmental tipping point, when are high-stakes warnings (focusing on worst-case scenarios) helpful, and when do they become counterproductive?

About the Authors:

Clayton Sweeney teaches Social Studies at Clay-Chalkville High School in Pinson, Ala. Clayton teaches AP U.S. History and Government and Economics.

Emily Orr is the Interactive Producer at Retro Report.

Chuck Taft teaches eighth-grade American History at University School of Milwaukee.

Standards

College, Career, and Civic Life (C3) Framework for Social Studies

• D2.Civ.9.6-8: Evaluate the effectiveness of public policies in addressing social issues.

• D2.Civ.6.9-12: Evaluate citizens’ and institutions’ effectiveness in addressing social and political problems at the local, state, tribal, national, and/or international level.

• D2.Civ.13.9-12: Evaluate public policies in terms of intended and unintended outcomes, and related consequences.

• D2.Eco.5.9-12: Analyze the ways in which incentives influence economic choices.

• D2.Geo.2.6-8: Use geographic representations to analyze the relationships between human populations and the environment.

• D2.His.1.9-12: Analyze how historical contexts shaped and continue to shape people’s perspectives.

Common Core Literacy Standards

• CCSS.ELA-LITERACY.RI.8.1: Cite the textual evidence that supports analysis of what the text says explicitly as well as inferences drawn from the text.

• CCSS.ELA-LITERACY.W.8.1: Write arguments to support claims in an analysis of substantive topics or texts.

Next Generation Science Standards

• MS-ESS3-4: Construct an argument supported by evidence for how increases in human population and per-capita consumption of natural resources impact Earth’s systems.

• HS-ESS3-1: Construct an explanation based on evidence for how the availability of natural resources, occurrence of natural hazards and climate changes have influenced human activity.

AP Environmental Science Standards

• EIN-1.C Describe the factors that affect the rate of human population growth.

• EIN-1.D Explain the effect of total fertility rate on human population growth.

• EIN-1.E Describe the four stages of the demographic transition model.

• ESS3-4 Construct an argument supported by evidence for how increases in human population and per-capita consumption of natural resources impact Earth’s systems.

• E.S.I.3 Analyze and interpret age structure diagrams (population pyramids) to predict future population growth rates and demands for resources.